{"id":1066,"date":"2023-09-06T19:03:45","date_gmt":"2023-09-06T19:03:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johnsonteamrealestate.com\/?p=1066"},"modified":"2023-09-08T19:33:53","modified_gmt":"2023-09-08T19:33:53","slug":"expert-home-price-forecasts-revised-up-for-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johnsonteamrealestate.com\/index.php\/2023\/09\/06\/expert-home-price-forecasts-revised-up-for-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Expert Home Price Forecasts Revised Up for 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of last year, there were a number of headlines saying home prices<\/a> were going to fall substantially in 2023. That led to a lot of fear and questions about whether there was going to be a repeat of the housing crash that happened back in 2008. But the headlines got it wrong.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While there was a slight home price correction after the sky-high price appreciation during the \u2018unicorn\u2019 years<\/a>, nationally, home prices<\/a> didn\u2019t come crashing down. If anything, prices<\/a> were a lot more resilient than many people expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let’s take a look at some of the expert forecasts from late last year stacked against their most recent forecasts<\/a> to show that even the experts recognize they were overly pessimistic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expert Home Price Forecasts: Then and Now<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

This visual shows the\u00a02023<\/a>\u00a0home price\u00a0forecasts<\/a>\u00a0from seven\u00a0organizations<\/a>. It provides the original 2023 forecasts (released in late\u00a02022<\/a>) for what would happen to\u00a0home prices<\/a>\u00a0by the end of\u00a0this year<\/a>\u00a0and their most recently\u00a0revised<\/a>\u00a02023\u00a0forecasts<\/a>\u00a0(see chart below<\/em>):<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/a>As the red in the middle column shows, in all instances, their original forecast called for home prices to fall. But, if you look at the right column, you\u2019ll see all experts have updated their projections for the year-end to show they expect prices to either be flat or have positive growth. That\u2019s a significant change from the original negative numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are a number of reasons why home prices<\/a> are so resilient to falling. As Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American<\/em>, says<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cOne thing is for sure, having long-term, fixed-rate debt in the U.S. protects homeowners from payment shock, acts as an inflation hedge – your primary household expense doesn’t change when inflation rises – and is a reason why <\/em>home prices in the U.S. are downside sticky.\u201d<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

A Look Forward To Get Ahead of the Next Headlines<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

For home prices, you\u2019re going to continue to see misleading media coverage in the months ahead. That\u2019s because there\u2019s seasonality<\/a> to home price appreciation and they\u2019re going to misunderstand that. Here\u2019s what you need to know to get ahead of the next round of negative headlines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As activity in the housing market slows at the end of this year (as it typically does each year), home price growth will slow too. But, this doesn\u2019t mean prices are falling \u2013 it\u2019s just that they\u2019re not increasing as quickly as they were when the market was in the peak homebuying season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Basically, deceleration of appreciation is not the same thing as home prices depreciating.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bottom Line<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The headlines have an impact, even if they\u2019re not true. While the media said home prices would fall significantly in their coverage at the end of last year, that didn\u2019t happen. Let\u2019s connect so you have a trusted resource to help you separate fact from fiction with reliable data. Contact Johnson Team Real Estate today by calling 360.303.2734!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Toward the end of last year, there were a number of headlines saying home prices were going to fall substantially in 2023. That led to a lot of fear and questions about whether there was going to be a repeat of the housing crash that happened back in 2008. But the headlines got it wrong. While there […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-1066","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-uncategorized","7":"entry","8":"has-post-thumbnail"},"featured_image_src":null,"featured_image_src_square":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"fawn","author_link":"https:\/\/johnsonteamrealestate.com\/index.php\/author\/fawn\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/johnsonteamrealestate.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1066","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/johnsonteamrealestate.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/johnsonteamrealestate.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/johnsonteamrealestate.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/johnsonteamrealestate.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1066"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/johnsonteamrealestate.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1066\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1070,"href":"https:\/\/johnsonteamrealestate.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1066\/revisions\/1070"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/johnsonteamrealestate.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1066"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/johnsonteamrealestate.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1066"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/johnsonteamrealestate.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1066"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}