{"id":963,"date":"2023-06-05T17:34:45","date_gmt":"2023-06-05T17:34:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johnsonteamrealestate.com\/?p=963"},"modified":"2023-06-05T17:34:45","modified_gmt":"2023-06-05T17:34:45","slug":"oops-home-prices-didnt-crash-after-all","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johnsonteamrealestate.com\/index.php\/2023\/06\/05\/oops-home-prices-didnt-crash-after-all\/","title":{"rendered":"Oops! Home Prices Didn\u2019t Crash After All"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

During the fourthquarter of last year, many housing experts predicted home prices were going to crash this year. Here are a few of those forecasts:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jeremy Siegel<\/a>, Russell E. Palmer Professor Emeritus of Finance at the Wharton School of Business<\/em>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cI expect housing prices fall 10% to 15%, and the housing prices are accelerating on the downside.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Mark Zandi<\/a>, Chief Economist at Moody\u2019s Analytics<\/em>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

“Buckle in. Assuming rates remain near their current 6.5% and the economy skirts recession, then national house prices will fall almost 10% peak-to-trough. Most of those declines will happen sooner rather than later. And house prices will fall 20% if there is a typical recession.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Goldman Sachs<\/a>: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cHousing is already cooling in the U.S., according to July data that was reported last week. As interest rates climb steadily higher, Goldman Sachs Research\u2019s G-10 home price model suggests <\/em>home prices will decline by around 5% to 10% from the peak in the U.S.<\/em><\/strong> . . . Economists at Goldman Sachs Research say there are risks that housing markets could decline more than their model suggests.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

The Bad News: It Rattled Consumer Confidence<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

These forecasts put doubt in the minds of many consumers about the strength of the residential real estate market. Evidence of this can be seen in the December Consumer Confidence Survey<\/em><\/a> from Fannie Mae<\/em>. It showed a larger percentage of Americans believed home prices would fall over the next 12 months than in any other December in the history of the survey (see graph below<\/em>). That caused people to hesitate about their homebuying or selling plans as we entered the new year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Good News: Home Prices Never Crashed<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

However, home prices didn\u2019t come crashing down and seem to be already rebounding<\/a> from the minimal depreciation experienced over the last several months. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a report just released, Goldman Sachs<\/em> explained<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cThe global housing market seems to be stabilizing faster than expected despite months of rising mortgage rates, according to Goldman Sachs Research. <\/em>House prices are defying expectations and are rising in major economies such as the U.S.<\/em><\/strong>,. . . \u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Those claims from Goldman Sachs <\/em>were verified by the release last week of two indexes on home prices: Case-Shiller<\/em><\/a> and the FHFA<\/a>. Here are the numbers each reported:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Home values seem to have turned the corner and are headed back up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bottom Line<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

When the forecasts of significant home price appreciation were made last fall, they were made with megaphones<\/em><\/strong>. Mass media outlets, industry newspapers, and podcasts all broadcasted the news of an eminent crash in prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, forecasters are saying the worst is over and it wasn\u2019t anywhere near as bad as they originally projected. However, they are whispering the news instead of using megaphones<\/em><\/strong>. As real estate professionals, it is our responsibility \u2013 some may say duty \u2013 to correct this narrative in the minds of the American consumer. Contact Johnson Team Real Estate today 360.303.2734!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

During the fourthquarter of last year, many housing experts predicted home prices were going to crash this year. Here are a few of those forecasts: Jeremy Siegel, Russell E. Palmer Professor Emeritus of Finance at the Wharton School of Business: \u201cI expect housing prices fall 10% to 15%, and the housing prices are accelerating on […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":964,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-963","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"entry"},"featured_image_src":"https:\/\/johnsonteamrealestate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/20230605-oops-home-prices-didnt-crash-after-all-600x400.png","featured_image_src_square":"https:\/\/johnsonteamrealestate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/20230605-oops-home-prices-didnt-crash-after-all-600x410.png","author_info":{"display_name":"fawn","author_link":"https:\/\/johnsonteamrealestate.com\/index.php\/author\/fawn\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/johnsonteamrealestate.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/963","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/johnsonteamrealestate.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/johnsonteamrealestate.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/johnsonteamrealestate.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/johnsonteamrealestate.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=963"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/johnsonteamrealestate.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/963\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":965,"href":"https:\/\/johnsonteamrealestate.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/963\/revisions\/965"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/johnsonteamrealestate.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/964"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/johnsonteamrealestate.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=963"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/johnsonteamrealestate.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=963"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/johnsonteamrealestate.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=963"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}