• Skip to primary navigation
  • Skip to main content
  • Skip to primary sidebar
Johnson Team Real Estate

Johnson Team Real Estate

Your Bellingham Real Estate Resource

  • Search
    • Address
    • MLS#
    • Quick Search
    • Browse by City
  • Buying
    • Market Statistics
    • Mortgage Rates
    • Mortgage Calculator
  • Selling
    • Valuation Request
    • Get a Market Report
    • Market Statistics
  • Cities
    • Bellingham
    • Blaine
    • Everson
    • Ferndale
    • Birch Bay
    • Lynden
    • Lummi Island
    • Sandy Point
  • Neighborhoods
    • Alabama Hill
    • Birchwood
    • Bellingham’s Central Business District
    • Columbia
    • Cornwall Park
    • Edgemoor
    • Guide Meridian
    • Happy Valley
    • Fairhaven Historic District
    • Lettered Streets
    • Meridian
    • Mt. Baker
    • Puget
    • Roosevelt
    • Samish
    • Sehome
    • Silver Beach
    • South Hill
    • South
    • Sunnyland
    • Whatcom Falls
    • WWU
    • York
  • About
  • Blog
  • Contact
  • Email
  • Facebook

The Return of Normal Seasonality for Home Price Appreciation

September 26, 2023 by fawn

If you’re thinking of making a move, one of the biggest questions you have right now is probably: what’s happening with home prices? Despite what you may be hearing in the news, nationally, home prices aren’t falling. It’s just that price growth is beginning to normalize. Here’s the context you need to really understand that trend.

In the housing market, there are predictable ebbs and flows that happen each year. It’s called seasonality. Spring is the peak homebuying season when the market is most active. That activity is typically still strong in the summer but begins to wane as the cooler months approach. Home prices follow along with seasonality because prices appreciate most when something is in high demand.

That’s why there’s a reliable long-term home price trend. The graph below uses data from Case-Shiller to show typical monthly home price movement from 1973 through 2022 (not adjusted, so you can see the seasonality):

As the data shows, at the beginning of the year, home prices grow, but not as much as they do in the spring and summer markets. That’s because the market is less active in January and February since fewer people move in the cooler months. As the market transitions into the peak homebuying season in the spring, activity ramps up, and home prices go up a lot more in response. Then, as fall and winter approach, activity eases again. Price growth slows, but still typically appreciates.

After several unusual ‘unicorn’ years, today’s higher mortgage rates helped usher in the first signs of the return of seasonality. As Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at CoreLogic, explains:

“High mortgage rates have slowed additional price surges, with monthly increases returning to regular seasonal averages. In other words, home prices are still growing but are in line with historic seasonal expectations.”

Why This Is So Important to Understand

In the coming months, you’re going to see the media talk more about home prices. In their coverage, you’ll likely see industry terms like these:

  • Appreciation: when prices increase.
  • Deceleration of appreciation: when prices continue to appreciate, but at a slower or more moderate pace.
  • Depreciation: when prices decrease.

Don’t let the terminology confuse you or let any misleading headlines cause any unnecessary fear. The rapid pace of home price growth the market saw in recent years was unsustainable. It had to slow down at some point and that’s what we’re starting to see – deceleration of appreciation, not depreciation. 

Remember, it’s normal to see home price growth slow down as the year goes on. And that definitely doesn’t mean home prices are falling. They’re just rising at a more moderate pace.

Bottom Line

While the headlines are generating fear and confusion on what’s happening with home prices, the truth is simple. Home price appreciation is returning to normal seasonality. If you have questions about what’s happening with prices in our local area, let’s connect. Contact Johnson Team Real Estate today by calling 360.303.2734!

Filed Under: Uncategorized

Primary Sidebar

Communities

Stay in the Loop

Sign up to receive market up date and the latest in real estate news!!

Search

  • Search
  • Buying
  • Selling
  • Cities
  • Neighborhoods
  • About
  • Blog
  • Contact
“Three Trees” icon indicates a listing provided courtesy of NWMLS.
DMCA Notice
The information contained in this listing has not been verified by The Johnson Team Real Estate at  Muljat Group Realtors® and should be verified by the buyer.
The database information herein is provided from and copyrighted by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service (NWMLS). NWMLS data may not be reproduced or redistributed and is only for people viewing this site. All information provided is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed and should be independently verified. All properties are subject to prior sale or withdrawal. All rights are reserved by copyright.
IDX information is provided exclusively for consumers’ personal, non-commercial use and that it may not be used for any purpose other than to identify prospective properties consumers may be interested in purchasing. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed to be accurate. Listing information updated daily.

DMCA Notice

Copyright © 2023 · Office Help Center Log in